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A sweeping look at the messy and contentious past of US presidential pre-election polls and why they aren't as reliable as we think. Polls in U.S. presidential elections can and do get it wrong—as surprising outcomes in 2020, in 2016, in 2012, in 2004, in 2000 all remind us. Lost in a Gallup captures in lively and unprecedented fashion the stories of polling flops, epic upsets, unforeseen landslides, and exit poll fiascoes in presidential elections since 1936. Polling's checkered record in elections has rarely been considered in detail and, until now, has never been addressed collectively. Polling embarrassments are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides occurred; they have indicated the wrong winner in closer elections; state polls have confounded expected national outcomes. Exit polling has thrown Election Day into confusion. The work of venerable pollsters has been singularly and memorably in error. It is a rare presidential election not to be marred by polling controversies. Lost in a Gallup casts a critical eye on major figures in election polling such as George Gallup, a prickly founding father of public opinion research.
The Elections of 2020 is a timely, comprehensive, scholarly, and engagingly written account of the 2020 elections. It features essays by an all-star team of political scientists in the immediate aftermath of the 2020 general election, chronicling every stage of the presidential race as well as the coterminous congressional elections, paying additional attention to the role of the media and campaign finance in the process. Broad in coverage and bolstered by tables and figures presenting exit polls and voting results in the primaries, caucuses, and the general election, these essays discuss the consequences of these elections for the presidency,
The new edition of this popular textbook provides a comprehensive, accessible introduction to public opinion in the United States and describes how public opinion data are collected, how they are used, and the role they play in the U.S. political system. Bardes and Oldendick introduce students to the history of polling and explain the factors a good consumer of polls should know in order to evaluate public opinion data. Public Opinion: Measuring the American Mind is the only text to devote significant space to the history of polling, the use of polling in America today, and to explain the methods used for survey research.
Successful campaign manager and three-time mayor of Ashland, Oregon, Catherine Shaw presents a clear and concise, must-have handbook for navigating local campaigns. This handbook gives political novices and veterans alike a comprehensive and detailed plan for organizing, funding, publicizing, and winning local political campaigns. Finding the right message and targeting the right voters are clearly explained through specific examples, anecdotes, and illustrations. Shaw also provides in-depth information on assembling campaign teams, precinct analysis, canvassing, and dealing with the media. The Campaign Manager is an encouraging, lucid presentation of how to win elections at the local level. Updates to the fifth edition include an entirely new chapter on social media and its influence on campaigning, new coverage on how to put together a campaign plan, and a new appendix on how to campaign on a budget.
The 2008 presidential election provided a "perfect storm" for pollsters. A significant portion of the population had exchanged their landlines for cellphones, which made them harder to survey. Additionally, a potential Bradley effect -- in which white voters misrepresent their intentions of voting for or against a black candidate -- skewed predictions, and aggressive voter registration and mobilization campaigns by Barack Obama combined to challenge conventional understandings about how to measure and report public preferences. In the wake of these significant changes,
Dramatic changes in political institutions and behavior over the past three decades have underscored the dynamic nature of American politics, confronting political scientists with a new and pressing intellectual agenda. The pioneering work of early postwar scholars, while laying a firm empirical foundation for contemporary scholarship, failed to consider how American politics might change or recognize the forces that would make fundamental change inevitable. In reassessing the static interpretations fostered by these classic studies, political scientists are now examining the underlying dynamics that generate transformational change.
Every two years, exit polls become the most widely analyzed, written about and discussed data-set in the United States. Although exit polls are known for their use in predicting elections, they are in fact the best tool for explaining election results. Exit polls are taken from actual voters, whereas pre-election polls that tally people's intended votes are estimated to overstate the number of people who will actually go to the polls. Exit Polls: Surveying the American Electorate is a groundbreaking new reference work that explores for the first time the trends in longitudinal variables asked in the national Election Day exit polls from their beginning in 1972 to the present.
Utilizing both a critical thinking approach and a comparative perspective throughout the text, Sobel and Shiraev provide comprehensive coverage of public opinion while also teaching students the basic skills necessary for measurement, understanding, and interpreting. Written in an accessible and engaging manner, this text provides a unique and practical introduction to the field of public opinion. The book begins by "schooling" the reader in how to think critically and then helps students apply those techniques as they encounter the concepts of public opinion. The text also employs a comparative perspective, demonstrating the effect and nature of public opinion in other countries while also placing American public opinion in context.
Census Bureau's Voting and Registration Supplement (VRS) Tables
November supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS) provides results on reported voting and registration in presidential and congressional elections broken down by various demographic and socioeconomic characteristics down to the state level. Does not include reported partisan votes. Detailed tables in Excel or .csv, including historical time series from the 1960s–.
Voter Turnout Based on Voter Eligible Population (VEP), 1980–
National and state turnout rates for the voting-eligible population (VEP) and voting age population (VAP) for the 1980-present November general elections. Also, national turnout rates for presidential and midterm general elections, 1787-2012. Data in Excel format. Some years have primary figures as well. Compiled by Prof. Michael McDonald of the University of Florida.
50-state list providing details on voter registration list data availability, permitted uses, cost, and links to state election sites for requesting.
Voter Turnout in the United States, 1788–2009
Comprehensive turnout statistics for general and primary elections for presidential, congressional, and state gubernatorial races. Extensive tables provide state level figures (including partisan turnout) grouped by office or election type in 20 year chunks. Also includes chronologies of major events and election law changes affecting turnout. Data in Excel or .csv.
Recent polling data from major polling organizations. Includes information on the sample size of the polls and a simple search engine.
Nonpartisan background information and polls on major public policy issues.
Tracks, aggregates, and analyzes polling data from major political polls.
Conducted during presidential election years, the NAES "examines a wide range of political attitudes about candidates, issues, and the traits Americans want in a president."
Public opinion on political issues is based on surveys of residents in New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey.
The website of one of the most prestigious polling firms. Includes the results and analysis of recent polls and has a simple search engine.
The Pew Research Center is an independent organization that conducts national surveys on the public's attitude towards the press, politics, and public policy issues. The website contains the results and analysis of polls dating back to 1995.
As part of its archive of public-opinion data, the Roper Center has an extensive collection of national and state exit polls for elections and primaries back to the 1970s. Roper also provides presidential approval ratings for FDR onwards.
Election Administration by the Numbers: An Analysis of Available Datasets and How to Use Them, 2012. This report from the Pew Center on the States discusses strengths and weaknesses of several major datasets for studying election administration.
Office of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives
The Clerk of the U.S. House Representatives lists election results from 1920 to the most recent, the official vote counts for presidential electors, U.S. senators, and U.S. Representatives.
Census | Voter Registration Statistics
Information on reported voting and registration by various demographic and socioeconomic characteristics is collected for the nation in November of congressional and presidential election years in the Current Population Survey (CPS).
American National Election Studies
"The mission of the American National Election Studies (ANES) is to inform explanations of election outcomes by providing data that support rich hypothesis testing, maximize methodological excellence, measure many variables, and promote comparisons across people, contexts, and time."
Election Resources On the Internet
Links to Internet sites worldwide that provide complete and detailed national and local election statistics, as well as other election resources.
The United States Election Project
The United States Elections Project strives to provide timely and accurate election statistics, electoral laws, research reports, and other helpful information regarding the United States electoral system. Disseminate research conducted by Dr. Michael McDonald.
CQ Voting and Elections Collection (CSU Only)
United States election voting reference works with downloadable election data. Covers the American voter to major and minor political parties, actual races for Congress, the Presidency, and governorships. Election data can be downloaded in csv or tsv and earliest date of coverage varies by office: President (national summary: 1789; county detail: 1920); Senate (national summary: 1908; county detail: 1968); Governor (national summary: 1824; county detail: 1967); House (national summary: 1824; district detail: 1968)
Data-driven coverage and analysis of politics and elections.
A nonpartisan organization that provides election results data at the federal, state, and local election races. This resource provides historical state electoral voting patterns and results with interactive maps.
A nonpartisan organization providing data on several points at the federal, state, and local elections. This resource has a robust database of voter turnout data for recent and past elections. Ballotpedia provides extensive information about candidates, state court systems, party information, and much more.
Covers presidential, Congressional, state, and local elections by precinct for 2016 and 2018 (in progress).
Geo-referenced to US Census Voting Tabulation Districts compared to Census data at low levels. Data can be downloaded in a variety of formats. It also includes GIS shapefiles. For more information on the challenges of merging election geographies with Census geographies, see the Public Mapping Project.
Presidential, Congressional, and Statewide office elections by precinct, 2002–2012 (some states have earlier data, and most also have 2014 data). It usually includes gubernatorial elections and some other statewide offices as well.
Includes general, primary, and special elections to federal, gubernatorial, and state legislative offices (by county and precinct, generally 2000–present). The project is still in process, but many states have data available, especially for recent general elections.
Federal Elections Project (2000)
Many states have an additional file with results matched to racial data from the 2000 Census, and some include returns for various statewide offices or initiatives. The results are in Excel.
Presidential and Congressional election returns for all states plus D.C.
Record of American Democracy (ROAD) (1984–1990)
Data has also been merged with many demographic and socioeconomic variables from Census data. Data can be downloaded in a variety of formats.
All elections at and above State House, along with party registration and other variables, in each state for the roughly 170,000 precincts nationwide.
Election Datasets from the American Political Science Review Dataverse. The American Political Science Review is political science's premier scholarly research journal, providing peer-reviewed articles and review essays from subfields throughout the discipline. Areas covered include political theory, American politics, public policy, public administration, comparative politics, and international relations. APSR has been published continuously since 1906.
This is published through Harvard University's Dataverse.
The ANES series is one of the premier sources for data on voting behavior and political attitudes in the post-WWII United States. Upon registering (which is free), users can download data and SAS/SPSS/Stata program files and documentation for any of the various NES studies. The SDA Archive at UC-Berkeley also allows users to access recent versions of the ANES and extract particular variables from them for those who have specific questions in which they are interested.
The ANES Guide is an excellent source for data on trends in voting behavior for the US since World War II.
This site contains data and documentation for a cross-national collection of election studies. The CSES combines microdata on respondents with data at different levels of geography (i.e. data on respondents' electoral districts and on the political institutions of their countries) and focuses on themes such as how macro-level variables such as electoral systems affect political attitudes.
Repository of detailed results - including votes received by each candidate/party, total votes cast, number of eligible voters, and seat figures were available - at a constituency level for the lower house legislative elections that have been conducted around the world.
The CLE Dataset is a project undertaken by Professor Dawn Brancati at Washington University in St. Louis and is a compilation of district-level election results broken by individual political parties. The data cover national elections and some sub-national elections as well.
The Federal Elections Project, hosted by American University, distributes precinct-level data on U.S. federal elections from 2000.
An intergovernmental organization provides comprehensive political participation statistics since 1945, including total votes, voting age, percentage of voters to register, etc.
The ROAD project, which was headed by Harvard Professor Gary King, collected data on election returns, political behavior, demographics, and boundaries at small levels of geography (e.g., precincts).
Election Administration by the Numbers: An Analysis of Available Datasets and How to Use Them, 2012. This report from the Pew Center on the States discusses strengths and weaknesses of several major datasets for studying election administration.
NCSL 50 State Election Resources
The National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) provides 50-state research on many election laws and procedural issues dealing with all aspects of elections. Also helpful is their comparison by the state of the process for completing and certifying elections and state laws and regulations around voting outside the polling place.
Stanford-MIT Healthy Elections Project
"Brings together academics and election administration experts to assess and promote best practices to ensure the election can proceed with integrity, safety, and equal access." Features state profiles/reports on election administration and mail balloting, a tracker of covid-related election litigation, and data visualizations and open data (on Github) of state election administration metrics.
U.S. Polling Places (2012-2018)
Project by the Center for Public Integrity and Stateline to collect and standardize data on polling locations used in each election cycle since 2012 for 30 states (with more to be added). Lists each polling place’s county, precinct, name, and address. Data in .csv.
The Verifier Project: Polling Place Equipment
Verified Voting (a non-partisan organization focused on technology in election administration) provides a comprehensive dataset of voting equipment down to the precinct level 2006-present. Includes the type of voting equipment, makes and models, accessibility, and whether there is a voter-verified paper audit trail. Data in Excel, .csv, and JSON.
A project at MIT (formerly at Pew Research) tracks how efficient and effective states are in administering elections. Ranks and measures the states on 17 indicators (e.g., voter registration rate, turnout %, voting wait time, provisional ballots rejected, etc.). Data available in .csv and as an interactive report; 2008-2018.
Measuring Elections Dataverse - Collection of primary datasets valuable to study the administration and performance of U.S. elections, including:
Elections Performance Index (EPI) 2008–2014 (see description above).
Survey of the Performance of American Elections (SPAE) 2007–2012. Asked in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, SPAE surveys 10,000 people (200 from each state) about their experience with and attitudes toward their voting experience. For example, it provides data for comparing the time waiting in line to vote between states.
U.S. Election Assistance Commission's Election Administration and Voting Survey (EAVS) 2008–2014 (see description below).
Census Bureau's Voting and Registration Supplement (VRS) to the Current Population Survey 2000–2012 (also see the entry in the Turnout box above for other data access).
Election Administration and Voting Survey
EAVS is the only nationwide census of primary data concerning election administration and policy. Covers voter registration, uniformed and overseas citizens' absentee voting, domestic civilian absentee ballots, provisional ballots, and Election Day activities. Reports at county and municipality level (where municipalities administer the elections). Data in multiple formats. It also includes responses from the Statutory Overview, which allows for comparison across states of election administration legal requirements and practices. 2004–present (for 2004-2010, click on the Archives link in the navigation box on the right).
Analysis of Election Administration Datasets
Election Administration by the Numbers: An Analysis of Available Datasets and How to Use Them, 2012. This report from the Pew Center on the States discusses the strengths and weaknesses of several significant datasets for studying election administration.
Evaluating Elections: A Handbook of Methods and Standards (print only)
"This book focuses on how the tools of public management and policy evaluation can be used to give election officials the data they need to improve elections." In print at JK1976 .A68 2013 (Firestone Library).
NCSL's Election Administration at State and Local Levels
Tables and charts from the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) that describe the title, method of selection, and appointing authorities for Chief Election Officials at the state and local levels.
Local Election Officials Directory
Directory of the county and some city election officials with website, phone, fax, email, and mailing address compiled by the U.S. Vote Foundation. It also provides statewide voter information (eligibility and ID requirements, dates, registration info, state elections websites, etc.). For a similar list of local election officials for all counties in a table format, see the Federal Voting Assistance Program's Local Election Office Directory.
State Elections-Related Legislation Databases Collection of state election-related legislation databases from the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL). There are separate databases on
the administration of elections (2001-present)
ballot measures (1892-2014)
initiatives and referendum process legislation (1993-present)
campaign finance legislation (1999-present)
Federal Voting Assistance Program Surveys
Post-election surveys with an extensive set of questions on the voting experience of voters residing outside the US (active duty military and spouses, overseas citizens). Generally 2000–present.
In the presidential election of November 2000, approximately 180,000 ballots in Florida's 67 counties were uncertified because they failed to register a "valid" vote for president. These ballots included those in which no vote was recorded (undervotes) and those in which people voted for more than one candidate (overvotes). The 2000 Florida Ballots Project examined the undervotes and overvotes. The goal of the project was not to declare a "winner," but rather to carefully examine the ballots to assess the relative reliability of the three major types of ballot systems used in Florida.
* *From Jeremy Darrington's U.S. Elections: Election and Voter Data Guide. It is an excellent guide to find data sources for a variety of topics related to elections and politics.
Comprehensive turnout statistics for general and primary elections for presidential, congressional, and state gubernatorial races. Extensive tables provide state-level figures (including partisan turnout) grouped by office or election type in 20-year chunks. It also includes chronologies of major events and election law changes affecting turnout. Data in Excel or .csv.
A searchable collection of election returns from the earliest years of American democracy, 1787-1825.
One of the most comprehensive collections of web resources on the American presidency, including documents, public papers, executive orders, addresses, press conferences, debates, election data, approval ratings, much more. Data topics include Relations with Congress / Popularity / Public Appearances / Growth of the Executive Branch / Presidential Selection / State of the Union and Inaugural Address Charts / Presidential Disability.
Prediction markets are marketplaces for the exchange of predictions on uncertain future events. While stock exchanges find the price of stocks and futures markets find the price of commodities, prediction markets find the probability of some real-world event happening. Traders buy or sell shares based on their predictions of the event happening.
Provides daily price and volume data for numerous political prediction markets, both current and historical.
PredictIt is a research project of the Victoria University of Wellington. To take full advantage of the research opportunities presented by prediction markets like PredictIt, we make our data available to members of the academic community at no cost. PredictIt’s market data offers researchers a wealth of information that can be used to further our understanding of a wide array of subjects in fields of study, such as microeconomics, political behavior, computer science, and game theory. PredictIt is excited to support the work of our research partners as they push the boundaries of human knowledge.
PredictIt’s data partners represent universities and research organizations across the United States and around the world.
Harvard Dataverse is a free data repository open to all researchers from any discipline, both inside and outside of the Harvard community, where you can share, archive, cite, access, and explore research data. Each dataverse is a customizable collection of datasets (or a virtual repository) for organizing, managing, and showcasing datasets.
Visit the Harvard Dataverse Site for more information on its datasets.
